Brighton xG

Solving Brighton’s finishing problem

Jul 20, 2021 — Leave a comment

It has certainly been no secret that Brighton and Hove Albion have struggled in front of goal under Graham Potter.

None of their attacking players outscored their xG last season, and the expected points table suggested they should have accumulated approximately 60 points in 20/21, which could have seen them as high as 5th!

In reality however, they finished in 16th with a stinging 41 points.

If they want to take the leap to the next level, many have suggested that they need a striker who can consistently put the ball in the back of the net, maximising the creativity of the team.

When it comes down to it, the problem obviously isn’t as simple as that, but a more efficient forward would surely be of massive help in accelerating their path up the table. Here then, is a quick look at their current situation, and who might be available to plug the gaping goal hole at the apex of the pitch.

Brighton’s strikers currently

As mentioned, none of Brighton’s attacking players outperformed their xG last season. This indicates that they played rather well last term and created a lot of chances but failed to capitalize often, resulting a hefty drop in points (around 20 as we saw earlier) over the course of the campaign.

The biggest offender, as some may suspect, was Neal Maupay. Despite being the club’s top scorer with 8 goals, he had an xG of 13.77, underperforming his xG by almost 6 goals over the course of the campaign.

Behind him lies Welbeck, who underperformed by 1.38 goals, Leandro Trossard, who was 0.41 goals down, and finally Aaron Connolly who scored 2.46 less than expected.

In fact, the only players to outperform their xG last term for Brighton were Lewis Dunk (netting 2.29 more than expected), Solly March, Steven Alzate and Tariq Lamptey. Given that these players netted a collective 9 goals, you can see why finishing is such a problem for Brighton.

Consistency is a real problem too. Maupay bagged 4 in 3 games at the start of the year, then another 3 in 5 midseason, but managed just one goal outside of these fixtures, going as long as 9 games without adding to his tally.

Similarly, Trossard would register goals/assists in small batches, contributing in this manner in back-to-back games only 3 times in the season and elsewhere Aaron Connolly struggled with fitness and selection just as much as finishing chances, being in and out of the squad throughout 2021.

What options are available to Brighton?

Whilst Brighton don’t have an embarrassment of riches, they are a Premier League club and have all the bonuses that come along with being such. Therefore, they can surely afford to shop around to secure a valuable asset, even in a strange Covid market.

Whilst the below options aren’t necessarily rumoured by the best of sources right now, these players are all somewhat available and this review of each will be based on whether they could be helpful or not, not their likelihood of arriving on the South coast.

Martin Braithwaite

Linked: https://www.football-espana.net/2021/07/17/premier-league-martin-braithwaite-barcelona

Mr. Braithwaite has had an interesting career. Currently at Barcelona, the Catalonian club need shut of him (amongst a few others) in order to complete the signings of a few new stars, so he’s available at an affordable price, rumoured to be around £15 million.

Braithwaite is a busy body and can able a great asset in supporting attacks, as displayed for Denmark this summer at Euro 2020. He breaks the lines well, drifts wide to find space and pull defenders apart and has enough passing ability in order to fly in Potter’s seagulls side.

The problem however, is finishing, which is exactly what Brighton need. Over the past 8 seasons, he’s underperformed his xG by almost 19 goals, netting a maximum of 11 goals in a single season, at Toulouse in 2016/17, meaning he’s hardly the most composed in front of goal.

So yes, he’d be a helpful asset if he were supporting a strong finisher but given his lack of prowess in finishing off moves he’s not quite the right man for the job in my eyes. Braithwaite is more of a Welbeck type, the second striker, and £15 million might be better spent elsewhere.

Verdict: Poor fit, but a quality support player.

Tammy Abraham

Linked: https://www.sussexlive.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/tammy-abraham-brighton-chelseas-stance-5507290

Now were talking. Many would argue that Tammy Abraham has been dealt a bit of a bad hand by Thomas Tuchel and given the club’s success in his short stint so far, you can hardly blame the German coach. That said, if Abraham wants to get back in the England frame for next year’s World Cup, or is just sick of waiting for opportunities to shine, then now may be the time to strike, with a transfer looking all the more likely.

West Ham are also eyeing the forward, and they look the front runners, but Brighton should give this potential transfer a real push, as Tammy could fill in well at the spearhead of this attack-minded side.

Last season he performed almost at his xG, netting 6 goals from chances totaling 6.19, proving that he can finish his chances well. He also averages more shots per 90 than anyone in the Brighton squad currently; his 2.8 comparing favourably to the 2.59 of Aaron Connolly, Brighton’s top performer in that department at present.

Abraham also offers value in terms of aerial threat and hold up play, something which Lamptey, Trossard and Groß could really benefit from throughout the year. The real negative for Tammy and Brighton comes in the passing department – he nails just 73% of his passes, which is lower than almost the entire Brighton squad, and much lower than fellow striker Danny Welbeck, who sits at an impressive 81%.

Should he sign for Brighton though, his main goal would be simply scoring chances, so he could be a very good fit for Potter and given the side in set up in an attacking manner Abhraham could seriously reap the benefits.

Verdict: A genuine goalscorer, which is what Brighton sorely need.

Odsonne Edouard

Linked: https://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/1464353/Brighton-Celtic-Odsonne-Edouard-Arsenal-Ben-White-transfer-news

Edouard has been knocking on the door of the Premier League for some time now, and having scored 16 league goals last term along with a couple more in Europe its surely a good moment for him to make a step up in his career. (No offence Celtic fans, sorry.)

He likes to play in a side that controls possession, drifting across the front line patiently to sniff out opportunities to strike, which lines up well with the philosophy of Brighton, and I feel he could have a good connection with Leandro Trossard and his space-finding abilities in particular.

Having managed a tidy 0.8 xG+A per game in Scotland, he is another forward that would rank at the top of Brighton’s roster statistically. Plus, he is a great freekick taker, even having a couple of knuckleball finishes in his arsenal.

The main question lies in the step up in quality, and whether he will sink or swim in the big leagues. Plus, his price tag will likely be quite a lot for player who has yet to play in such an intense league and baring in mind the phrasing of reports, it looks like a good chunk of the Ben White money will need to be tabled to secure Edouard’s signature.

Given that he already has 7 Europa League goals from his Celtic tenure (including strikes against Milan, Salzburg and Leipzig) he stands a good chance of stepping up well enough in my books. And just look at the man he followed, Moussa Dembele – things have worked out impressively for him.

Verdict: A good fit, but largely unproven at this level.

Other forward options

Okay so not all of these have necessarily been linked to Brighton yet, but they certainly could be available to differing extents depending on Brighton’s budget and the personal pull they may have to these players.

So here’s a quick fire run through some other interesting forwards.

Eddie Nketiah

A real poacher’s poacher, who has yet to show much else yet. He seems to be remaining on the fringes at Arsenal and would likely benefit from first team football as Arteta’s interest in the young forward is often fleeting. As a record-breaking scorer for England U21 he may well cost a fair chunk, but he certainly fits the goalscoring mould on paper.

Michy Batshuayi

Over the past 9 seasons Michy Batshayi is performing almost exactly at his xG, bagging 47 goals across spells at 5 different clubs. He’s also outperformed his xA by 6.72 in that time, showing that he’s a useful player both in and around the box. Question marks will loom over his sharpness, given that the last time he got over 1,000 league minutes was in the 15/16 season, but as he’s in the last year of his Chelsea contract, he might be available at a cut-price.

Moussa Dembele

In his last full season at Lyon, Dembele outperformed his xG by 4.6 goals, finishing the campaign with 16 league goals in total. Whilst a loan move to Atleti was a complete horror show, he remains an interesting asset and if he’s available at the price the Madrid side were proposed, €32.5m, then he could be an affordable and effective striker, should he fancy a move to Southern England.

Roman Yaremchuk

The man who led the line for Ukraine as they managed their best finish at an international tournament to date showed flashes of what he’s all about this summer. At the tournament he was a little wasteful, but busy, getting in strong positions throughout the tournament. He may not be considered a ‘naturel finisher’ making him slightly unsuitable for the role, but he managed 17 goals last term for Gent so he may be worth a shot at the right price, which looks to be around £18 million.

To conclude

So these forwards are just a taste of what Brighton could be looking at in order to solve their goalscoring problems this summer, and a hell of a lot hinges on the club getting this move right.

Should they spend the money well, Brighton could be looking at their best ever Premier League finish, breaking into the top half and causing a stir. But should they fail to invest correctly, they could find Potter makes his next career move before too long, throwing them back into an unwanted period of transition.

And yes, there’s a lot more to a football team than a goalscoring individual, but scarcely has there been such an obvious hole in a promising Premier League side.  

The xG Philosophy, Brighton and Hove Albion and Chris Wood

Mar 24, 2021 — Leave a comment

Right now, xG feels like the hottest metric in football.

The xG Philosophy twitter account, which handily records xG from games across England and Europe, has nearly 150,000 followers and the person behind the account has even written a book.

I’m a massive fan of the metric, and I think it provides a great tool in order to analyse players and performances over a longer period of time, not just on a game-by-game basis. It allows us insight into who’s performing well, who’s got some luck on their side, and who’s in trouble in the long run.

But there does appear to be some misconceptions about xG.

It certainly isn’t the be all and end all of football performance analytics, something which seems to be missed when using the metric, particularly in the aforementioned book.

How is xG measured and what does it show?

So every time a shot is taken in a game, it is assigned an xG value between 0.01 and 1.00, with the higher the value, the higher the likelihood the average player would score the chance.

The score granted to each shot is based upon analysing thousands of similar shots across within a massive database and assesses everything from distance and angle, to strong/weak foot, to whether the assist was a high-speed cross or a simple pass.

At the end of a fixture we can add up these values in order to see the totals for each team or player. This is a simple way of measuring which team or player outperformed the other at face value.

We can use these analytics more effectively over the course of the season though, and you can use the xG metric to help determine how a team or player has performed when compared with their expected values.

Take Brighton and Hove Albion for example, the kings of xG.

In 28 Premier League games this season Brighton have scored 28 goals and accumulated 28 points, which leaves them in 16th place, just 3 points clear of the relegation zone.

However, their xG determines that they should have scored approximately 42 goals this term, and based on xG scorelines and expected points, they should have approximately 46 points, which would put them in joint 6th position.

This tells us that Brighton have been one of two things; either Brighton are horrendous in front of goal or they have been painfully unlucky. The answer probably lies somewhere between the two, but this analysis could provide the basis of an argument such as “if Brighton bought a more effective striker in, they’d be nowhere near relegation.”

This argument could then be backed up by referring to Neal Maupay’s xG values across his time at Brighton. In two seasons at the club he has scored 17 goals (which might not seem a bad return) but has returned an xG of just under 25 goals in that timeframe, meaning he isn’t scoring as many goals as would fairly be expected of him.

xG does usually level out over a long period of time, largely due to differing streaks of luck, and it is rare to see a player or team consistently under or over-perform (Messi aside) their xG.

So here we can see how xG provides a simple way of measuring which team or player outperformed the other at face value.

But the xG value doesn’t (and I cannot emphasise this enough) tell the full story of a game and xG works very well in conjunction with other determining factors, but much less so as a standalone.

Brighton vs Newcastle United betting tips: Preview, predictions & odds

What might we be missing by only using xG?

A huge incident that xG does not consider in the xG Philosophy book, is the position of a goalkeeper and the defenders.

So someone striking the ball into an empty net having rounded the keeper from 10 yards out, would be worth the same as if there keeper were present for a one versus one chance.

Likewise, a one versus one from the edge of the box would be worth the same value, even if there were 6 defenders between the striker and the goal. Alternative xG methods, such as that of Statsbomb, do count for goalkeeping position, so be wary of the source of your information when using xG.

Dangerous attacks that might end with a zipped ball across the 6-yard box, or a player being forced wide by intelligent goalkeeping and being unable to shoot, are also disregarded by the model. Unless there is a shot at goal, no value is recorded, no matter the danger presented, which can really skew xG scorelines.

Then there’s Chris Wood.

Looking back at the recent 1-1 draw between Burnley and Arsenal, we can easily identify why xG does not always correlate to performance.

The xG scoreline for this game was 1.1 – 2.54 in favour of the Gunners, so whilst Arsenal probably should have won the game, Burnley appear to have fully deserved their goal based on performance.

However, Chris Wood’s goal, which game from blocking an attempted Granit Xhaka pass across his own box, came completely against the run of play and wasn’t worked for by impressive Burley attacking, yet it contributed 0.44 xG to Burnley’s total, their most valuable effort of the game. Without this their xG would have been 0.66, which tells a much different story.

So dangerous incidents without a shot are given no value, whereas deflections like in the case of Wood, can add up to a massive amount of a team’s xG score.

This then shows you that whilst, yes xG can be a good indicator of performance, it doesn’t always tell the full story of a team’s play, and there is no true replacement for reviewing the incidents themselves, rather than as statistics.

The Expected Goals Philosophy book

I don’t want to go too far into this, but frankly, I would not recommend this book.

Whilst there are interesting points made throughout the pages (Expect Points and the Justice Table spring to mind), my issue with the narrative is threefold:

1. There is a large manner of disrespect towards the reader, and football fans in general.

Within the opening pages, you’ll find the following lines:

“The noticeable absence of a smart, analytical and scientific voice in the mainstream football media reflects onto he fans who follow such broadcasting. Stupidity breeds stupidity.”

“Readers who are disinterested in a more advanced study of the sport, or who are too entrenched in the ‘traditional’ outlook of the beautiful game will struggle with the contents of The Expected Goals Philosophy.”

“Soon, those who do not understand or pay attention to xG data will be left behind.”

Rather than try to be inclusive and understanding of the limitations of the xG model in the mainstream, the writer (James Tippett) is completely exclusive, and devalues the opinion of a large portion of football fans.

The author also makes out xG is the definitive method of reviewing football performance, and that all other metrics are secondary, which as we touched on early, isn’t really the case.

2. There is a tremendous amount of repetition.

I hope you like hearing about Arsène Wenger referencing xG in a post-match interview once, and Jeff Stelling going off on xG during a Soccer Saturday broadcast, because you’re about to hear about these incidents (amongst others) a LOT.

And speaking of repetition…

3. The book inadvertently promotes gambling and high-rolling.

Smartodds is a privately owned company providing statistical research and sports modelling services to professional gamblers.

Prepare yourself for Smartodds getting mentioned throughout, with lots of reference to how much money they have generated through statistical analysis and xG.

I’m not anti-gambling, and I don’t mind a small tipple myself, but in many places the book feels like an advert for Smartodds’ services, which could be dangerous in the hands of someone susceptible to gambling addiction.

I could write an entire review of the book, but that’s a story for another day.

The Expected Goals Philosophy: A Game-Changing Way of Analysing Football: Amazon.co.uk: Tippett, James: 9781089883180: Books

So all in all, xG is a great metric to asses the performance of players and teams alike, but the metric cannot be used as a standalone and considering other factors is vitally important in effective use of the xG model.

Use it as a supporting player in your argument, rather than basing your entire premise on the metric and keep your eye on the xG of players and xG scorelines throughout the season, as you might end up uncovering some interesting trends.